Canada has for years been one of the world's best places to study as an overseas student, a nation that is known and secure with world-class education, liberal society, and clearly mapped paths to post-graduate jobs. But with each subsequent year comes a fresh reality. Stories of government controls, holdup visas, and housing shortages have left many wondering about the future of studying in Canada. Is the door shutting, or is the nation merely rearranging its strategy?
The reality is that Canada is at a juncture in its policy for international students, and it's an inflection point for potential students and the schools that depend on them arriving. What I'm going to lay out for you in this article is an inside, fact-driven understanding of what's going on, what the numbers reveal, and how to find your way around this new world so you can meet your academic objectives.
Why Student Intake Is Declining: What’s Behind the Drop
The slowdown in international student numbers hasn’t come out of nowhere. Over the past year, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has rolled out a series of policy shifts that, together, have changed how students get into the country.
One of the biggest shake-ups is the new study permit cap. Until recently, there was no nationwide limit. That changed in 2024, when the federal government introduced a two-year cap that brought the total down to about 360,000 permits — roughly 35% fewer than the year before. In 2025, the figure dropped again to around 437,000. For the first time, this also includes master’s and doctoral students, not just undergraduates. You can read more about these allocations on the official Government of Canada website.
Another factor behind the Canada study permit slowdown is the new Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) requirement. Before applying, students now need approval from the province they plan to study in. This has handed provinces far more control but also caused early delays as systems were set up to process requests.
The Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) rules have also changed. Since late 2024, students enrolled in certain curriculum licensing programs no longer qualify. On top of that, open work permits for spouses are now generally limited to those whose partners are in master’s or doctoral programs — a big shift from the previous rules. These details were highlighted in a KC Overseas Education report.
The government’s reasoning is that these measures will help with housing shortages and reduce strain on public services. For students and schools, though, the effects are immediate and hard to miss.
The Impact on International Students: A Crisis on the Ground
Right now, the slowdown in study permits is more than a statistic — it’s reshaping lives. Delays stretch on for months, and some applicants are being refused without much explanation. For many, it’s turned into what feels like an international student crisis in Canada.
The situation is particularly hard for Indian applicants. Towards the end of 2024, approvals for study permits from India plunged by roughly 57%. The challenges for Indian students in Canada are well documented, and an Indian Express article recently highlighted the toll: families drained from paying fees and preparing documents, only to face uncertainty or outright rejection. Education consultants say they’ve never seen the system move so slowly.
Some students still hope to study in Canada and are prepared to wait for the next intake. Others have already shifted their focus to other countries — Australia, the UK, and Ireland are high on the list. Each delay makes it more likely Canada will lose students to these alternatives.
Institutional Impact: Colleges and Universities on the Financial Brink
The ripple effect of the policy changes is also rocking the Canadian education system. Most institutions, including public colleges, had been depending hugely on foreign students' tuition fees, which range between three and five times those of home students.
Reports in the media have painted a picture of a domino effect of financial strain
- In Ontario, which experienced some of the provinces' most unsustainable growth, an association reported that 23 of 24 public colleges experienced a 48% drop in international students from September 2024, a state of affairs that Global News termed "alarming."
- This has resulted in extreme financial hardship, with instances of colleges firing hundreds of staff and eliminating or suspending dozens of programs. Sheridan College, for instance, reported it was suspending 40 programs due to an estimated 30% decline in enrollment and $112 million reduction in revenue.
- Some colleges, especially those in rural or more remote communities, have even been forced to shut down their campuses.
Are Canadian colleges shutting or dropping programs because of decreased enrollment? Yes, they are. They are not unique cases but a prevailing trend, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, where international student tuition dependence was highest. This international enrollment decline in Canada is compelling institutions to make tough choices that will impact domestic as well as international students.
The Future Projections For 2025-2026
Today's question is: how many foreign students is Canada projecting for 2025? Low totals don't necessarily mean doom. The limit is just a temporary two-year span, and institutions are merely adjusting.
- Diversifying Markets: Colleges and universities are shifting towards enrolling students from an increasing number of countries, instead of depending upon a select few markets.
- Emphasis on Quality: The policy change is designed to guide students into attending high-quality public universities and graduate programs, instead of private, career-oriented colleges.
- Other Options: Students and agents are looking at other countries more and more. The UK, Australia, and Ireland are emerging as viable alternative choices, especially with the recent instability brought into Canada.
Expert Opinions and Policy Reactions
The reforms have stirred up a heated controversy among the stakeholders:
- Colleges and Institutes Canada President Pari Johnston has maintained the reforms have caused mass disruption, compelling rural and remote colleges to axe programs and freeze recruitment.
- Universities Canada President Gabriel Miller said the moves have struck universities "like an earthquake" and Canada's global standing has taken a massive hit. He continued to say that the debacle could be discouraging talented students, wrote CBC.
- IRCC officials argue the moves are necessary to safeguard students and maintain the integrity of the program.
What Students Need to Know: Your Action Plan
With the current climate, there is any possible student who would be forced to employ a strategic strategy.
- Is it still an option to study in Canada in 2025? Yes, but you must be strategic. Look at universities and public colleges, less susceptible to the caps.
- Which provinces are impacted the most? Ontario and British Columbia were struck with some of the largest decreases because they have millions of students. Lower-demand provinces may also have more relaxed policies, so do your research.
- How does Canada's immigration policy impact international students? The policy changes to the PGWP and spouse visas have put barriers up to permanent residency for many, particularly college graduates.
- What do you need to beware of? Avoid counterfeit education agents and schools that are offering a guaranteed study visa. Use authentic government websites and trusted education partners such as UniNewsletter for your information.
Conclusion
The Canada student intake 2025 forecast shows a year of tighter controls and more selective approvals, a significant shift from the open-door period of previous years. Policies are being reshaped to balance the needs of students with the country’s housing capacity and public resources.
As mentioned in recent UniNewsletter reports, it doesn't mean the opportunities have vanished — but will need more preparation, better applications, and adaptability in choosing where and what to study. Students willing to adjust plans and keep up to date with changing requirements will discover Canada a rewarding nation in which to study.
For many, the dream remains possible. The path has simply become narrower, making timing, research, and resilience more important than ever.
26-05-2023
American University of Ras Al Khaimah 
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